# The Implied > What the odds are telling us, before the headlines catch up. The Implied is an AI-attributed prediction market intelligence platform. We monitor prediction markets (Polymarket) for significant probability shifts and use AI to explain why they moved, citing real news sources. ## How it works 1. Scanner polls Polymarket every 15 minutes for contracts with $50K+ liquidity 2. Move detection flags probability changes >= 5 percentage points 3. AI attribution searches for correlated news events via Tavily 4. LLM synthesizes an editorial headline and explanation citing sources 5. Related contracts are clustered into story units (e.g., all Iran-related markets) ## What makes a "move" A move is a significant probability shift in a prediction market contract. We track: - US Policy (congress, elections, executive orders) - Geopolitics (conflicts, treaties, leadership changes) - Economy (recession, oil prices, Fed decisions, tariffs) - Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum price thresholds) - Tech (AI, major tech companies) - Culture (entertainment, media, science) Sports markets are filtered out. ## Data format Each move includes: - The contract question (e.g., "Will WTI Crude Oil hit $120 in April?") - Probability change in percentage points - Start and end probabilities - Signal strength (change magnitude weighted by market liquidity) - AI-generated attribution with cited news sources - Editorial headline ## API access - RSS feed: https://theimplied.news/api/rss - This file: https://theimplied.news/llms.txt ## Current moves (last 24 hours) ## Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? - Contract: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? - Change: -28.0 pts (38% → 10%) - Category: us_policy - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 03:47:25 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 19.8 - Liquidity: $56K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-may-31-20260527 ## US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? - Contract: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? - Change: -17.0 pts (48% → 31%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 17:47:19 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 17.4 - Liquidity: $104K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-may-31-20260527 ## US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? - Contract: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? - Change: -7.5 pts (48% → 41%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 11:26:52 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 9.2 - Liquidity: $128K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-20260527 ## US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? - Contract: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? - Change: -7.0 pts (48% → 41%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Tue May 26 2026 23:39:27 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 8.4 - Liquidity: $128K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-20260526 ## US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? - Contract: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? - Change: +5.5 pts (53% → 59%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 03:47:21 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 7.4 - Liquidity: $203K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-20260527 ## US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? - Contract: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? - Change: -8.0 pts (44% → 36%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 00:09:23 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 7.3 - Liquidity: $121K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-7-2026-20260527 ## Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? - Contract: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? - Change: +9.5 pts (59% → 69%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 15:17:08 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 6.8 - Liquidity: $61K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/-iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31-20260527 ## Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? - Contract: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? - Change: +7.0 pts (71% → 78%) - Category: us_policy - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 13:56:45 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 6.7 - Liquidity: $99K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-horm-20260527 ## Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Contract: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Change: +5.5 pts (62% → 67%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 12:37:13 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 6.6 - Liquidity: $132K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31-20260527 ## US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? - Contract: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? - Change: +9.0 pts (46% → 55%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 13:56:48 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 6.4 - Liquidity: $83K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-20260527 ## Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? - Contract: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? - Change: -7.0 pts (30% → 23%) - Category: economy - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 00:09:23 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 6.4 - Liquidity: $76K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-low-85-in-may-20260527 ## Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? - Contract: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? - Change: +7.0 pts (59% → 66%) - Category: tech - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 12:37:17 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 5.7 - Liquidity: $67K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31-20260527 ## US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? - Contract: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? - Change: -6.2 pts (27% → 21%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Tue May 26 2026 18:18:57 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 5.1 - Liquidity: $65K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-20260526 ## China x Philippines military clash before 2027? - Contract: China x Philippines military clash before 2027? - Change: +7.0 pts (17% → 24%) - Category: geopolitics - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 11:26:55 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 5.1 - Liquidity: $53K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-20260527 ## Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? - Contract: Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? - Change: +5.3 pts (5% → 10%) - Category: crypto - Detected: Wed May 27 2026 13:56:45 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) - Signal strength: 4.9 - Liquidity: $92K - Detail page: https://theimplied.news/moves/will-bitcoin-dip-to-70000-in-may-20260527 ## About - Website: https://theimplied.news - Data source: Polymarket (polymarket.com) - Attribution: Tavily search + local LLM (Gemma 4) - Built with: Next.js, Neon PostgreSQL, Vercel ## Contact Subscribe to the daily digest at https://theimplied.news for the top moves every morning at 7am ET.