Geopolitics12h ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
+6 pts
14%→
20%
Why It Moved
The increase in the contract probability appears related to reports that the US and Iran have received a plan to end hostilities and implement an immediate ceasefire (Source [3]). This news of concrete negotiation progress and a push for a ceasefire by mediators likely drove the market shift toward a higher likelihood of peace by the target date.
SourceUS, Iran receive plan to end hostilities, immediate ceasefire: Report - New York Post
nypost.com
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