← The Implied
Geopolitics3h ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

+5 pts
32%→
37%
$67K liquidity·Polymarket·Trade →

Why It Moved

The increased probability appears likely driven by renewed optimism that the conflict will conclude soon. This optimism is related to President Donald Trump's statements indicating that American forces will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks (Source [2]).

Source

Markets Rise And Oil Slumps Amid Optimism About Iran War Ending Soon - Forbes

forbes.com

Related Moves

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?+9 pts5% → 14%US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?+6 pts14% → 20%Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?+8 pts62% → 70%US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?+7 pts34% → 41%

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