← The Implied
Geopolitics9h ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

+5 pts
15%→
20%
$118K liquidity·Polymarket·Trade →

Why It Moved

The increase in the contract's probability appears likely driven by recent reports of US strikes targeting Kharg Island [1]. These military actions, described as targeting Iran's 'crown jewel,' suggest a significant escalation of conflict, which increases the market's belief in a change of control by April 30.

Source

Kharg Island under attack: Iran's 'crown jewel' targeted in fresh US strikes | World News - Hindustan Times

hindustantimes.com

Related Moves

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?+9 pts5% → 14%US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?+6 pts14% → 20%Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?+8 pts62% → 70%US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?+7 pts34% → 41%

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