US x IRAN
GeopoliticsContracts trending higher · 5 contracts moving
+9 pts5% → 14%
The Implied
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Today’s Moves
Contracts trending higher · 3 contracts
60% → 54%
Contracts trending higher · 2 contracts
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?+515% → 20%Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?+522% → 27%
The increase in the contract's probability appears likely driven by recent reports of US strikes targeting Kharg Island [1]. These military actions, described as targeting Iran's 'crown jewel,' suggest a significant escalation of conflict, which increases the market's belief in a change of control by April 30.
45% → 50%
51% → 45%
The decrease in the probability appears likely driven by reports that Mojtaba Khamenei is incapacitated and unable to govern. Sources [1], [2], and [3] detail intelligence memos suggesting he is unconscious and unable to be involved in decision-making, which would likely trigger a succession crisis and reduce the likelihood of him remaining head of state through 2026.
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